مدل‌سازی تخریب گستره جنگل با استفاده از متغیرهای فیزیوگرافی و اقتصادی- اجتماعی (مطالعه موردی: بخشی از حوضه جنگلی کاکارضای خرم‌آباد)

     Zagros forest as a widest forests of Iran, has a special place on economical development and maintain the stability of water and soil. In order to apporopriate planning for this forest information about forest extend during past, present and future is necessary. The present research was conducted to determine the forest area reduction, during 1955 to 1997, Modeling possibility forest extent loss prediction and its relation with physiographic factor and some of socio-economic factors using logistic regression. Exist digital ortophotomosaics was used in this study. After producing forest map, deforested area and Map was produced through crossing two forests map. Forest extent decreasing Modeling and its specially relations with physiographic factosr (slope, elevation and aspect) and socio-economic factors (education, population, type of livelihood in each village, and distance from road, river, village and forest areas) was performed using logistic Regression. Model sensitivity was evaluated using variable substitution and amount of ROC and Pseudo R2. Results showed that 515 ha of forest areas were deforested during 42 years. The result of evaluation showed that achieved model with Pseudo R2 equal to 0.2998 and ROC coefficient equal to 0.8553 adjusted well with the reality and main variable of forest extent had the highest effect on ROC and Pseudo R2 and livelihood type and elevation after that have more effects on model results.